A prognostic dynamic model applicable to infectious diseases providing easily visualized guides: a case study of COVID-19 in the UK.

A reasonable prediction of infectious diseases' transmission process under different disease control strategies is an important reference point for policy makers. Here we established a dynamic transmission model via Python and realized comprehensive regulation of disease control measures. We classified government interventions into three categories and introduced three parameters as descriptions for the key points in disease control, these being intraregional growth rate, interregional communication rate, and detection rate of infectors. Our simulation predicts the infection by COVID-19 in the UK would be out of control in 73 days without any interventions; at the same time, herd immunity acquisition will begin from the epicentre. After we introduced government interventions, a single intervention is effective in disease control but at huge expense, while combined interventions would be more efficient, among which, enhancing detection number is crucial in the control strategy for COVID-19. In addition, we calculated requirements for the most effective vaccination strategy based on infection numbers in a real situation. Our model was programmed with iterative algorithms, and visualized via cellular automata; it can be applied to similar epidemics in other regions if the basic parameters are inputted, and is able to synthetically mimic the effect of multiple factors in infectious disease control.

Epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of heart transplant recipients during the 2019 coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China: A descriptive survey report.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of heart transplant (HTx) recipients during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic remains unclear. We studied the characteristics of HTx recipients from December 20, 2019, to February 25, 2020, in an effort to understand their risk and outcomes. METHODS: All accessible HTx recipients were included in this single-center retrospective study. We collected information on the recipients using a web-based questionnaire as well as the hospital database. RESULTS: We followed 87 HTx recipients (72.4% were men, and the average age was 51 years). A total of 79 recipients resided in Hubei, and 57 recipients had a Wuhan-related history of travel or contact. Most took precautionary measures while in contact with suspicious crowds, and 96.6% of the families and communities undertook prevention and quarantine procedures. Four upper airway infections were reported, and 3 of them tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 (the fourth recovered and was not tested). All cases were mild and successfully recovered after proper treatment. Laboratory results of 47 HTx cases within the last 2 months were extracted. Of these, 21.3% of recipients had pre-existing lymphopenia, and 87.2% of recipients had a therapeutic concentration of tacrolimus (5-12 ng/ml). Liver and kidney insufficiency was seen in 5 and 6 recipients, respectively. CONCLUSION: HTx recipients who practiced appropriate prevention measures had a low rate of infection with SARS-CoV-2 and transition to the associated disease COVID-19. These early data will require confirmation as the pandemic establishes around the world.